William Ruto, Rigathi Gichagua and Raila Odinga: Kenya’s ever-shifting alliances

William Ruto, Rigathi Gichagua and Raila Odinga: Kenya’s ever-shifting alliances


The success of this process has also relied heavily on Ruto’s new alliance with his bitter enemy from the last election, Odinga, whose MPs and senators voted overwhelmingly to remove Gachagua from office.

The National Assembly also picked a close associate of Odinga, senior counsel James Orengo, to head its legal team during the impeachment trial.

There was a confluence of interests here, no doubt. But it could be a poisoned chalice for Ruto.

How long the dalliance lasts is unpredictable. But it is characteristic of Kenya’s ever-changing political landscape.

For now, Ruto has appointed four senior members of Odinga’s party to cabinet and is backing him for the influential position of the next African Union commission chairman.

The two men have a long political history together as either allies or rivals.

In the 2002 presidential election, Ruto backed Kenyatta while Odinga supported Kibaki who went on to win.

Five years later, allegiances shifted with Ruto backing Odinga and Kenyatta rallying behind the incumbent, Kibaki, in the bitterly contested 2007 election that descended into nationwide violence.

Ruto and Kenyatta were subsequently indicted by the International Criminal Court for their alleged roles in the fighting while they supported opposing sides.

But in the next two elections of 2013 and 2017, they ran on a joint ticket and defeated Odinga.

The cases against them at the ICC were eventually dismissed for lack of evidence.

Any alliances are possible in Kenyan politics, no matter how unlikely they may appear to the outsider.

All the national leaders try to do is keep their regional or ethnic blocs intact to use as bargaining chips when seeking partnerships and a formula to win national elections.

Both Ruto and Odinga have long worked towards that, having joined politics in their youth.

They both have loyal support bases – as their recent alliance shows with Odinga’s backers shifting fully behind a politician they opposed almost to the last man just two years ago.

Gachagua hoped to gain the same stature, but his ambition has for now burned him.

He is challenging his impeachment in court and if successful, it may yet hand him a political lifeline. If not, the law bars him from running for office for at least 10 years.

This kind of politics is a long game. At 59, Gachagua is a rather late entrant and his future is unclear.

He may well be condemned to political oblivion or he could still return to the arena – as Ruto’s rival or even his ally.

Despite what looks like a bitter divorce, with the president moving on swiftly, no-one in Kenya would be surprised to see him shake hands and smile on national television with his estranged former deputy.

Kenya’s political scene is an active seismic zone – the tectonic plates are constantly shifting and anything is possible.



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