A more likely option would be Turkey. As a Nato member but also a Sunni majority state, it would give the group a base from which to operate in relative safety. Last April President Erdogan hosted then Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh and his delegation in Istanbul, where they talked about “what needs to be done to ensure adequate and uninterrupted delivery of humanitarian aid to Gaza, and a fair and lasting peace process in the region”.
The move would also most likely be welcomed by Ankara, which has often sought to position itself as a broker between east and west.
Key Hamas figures such as Osama Hamdan, Taher al-Nunu, and others frequently featured on news outlets have been staying in Istanbul for over a month.
Their extended presence in Turkey marks a departure from past visits, which were typically limited to brief stays.
It is thought the personal safety of Hamas leadership is now a major concern for the group, which saw two leaders killed in less than four months. As well as Haniyeh’s death in July, in October Israel killed Yahya Sinwar, the mastermind behind the 7 October Hamas attack on southern Israel.
According to the European Council of Foreign Relations, “Hamas has adopted a temporary model of collective leadership to mitigate the effect of future Israeli assassinations”.
H A Hellyer, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), told the BBC that nowhere “will give them protection from Israeli assassination attempts in the same way that being in Doha, where America has its largest military base in the region, did”.
The latest move comes as US officials appear increasingly frustrated with the approach the Israeli government has taken to ending the war. In October, the US Secretaries of State and Defense said if Israel did not allow more humanitarian aid into the territory by 12 November, they would face unspecified policy “implications”.
Last weekend a number of UN officials warned the situation in northern Gaza was “apocalyptic”. On Saturday the independent Famine Review Committee said there was a “strong likelihood that famine is imminent in areas”.
The relationship between President Joe Biden and Netanyahu has deteriorated over the course of the war in Gaza, with increasing pressure from Washington to improve the humanitarian situation for the Palestinians and find some sort of negotiated settlement.
